Marcacci Communications

Breakthrough renewable energy forecasting technologies may be two years away from revolutionizing the efficiency of wind and solar generation on America’s grid.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is adding to its already impressive list of renewable energy innovations with a new two-year plan to develop custom forecasting systems for wind energy and solar power.

NCAR scientists and engineers will develop technology to improve wind power output by predicting sudden changes in wind speed, help wind farm operators avoid curtailment during icy conditions, and predict the amount of energy generated by small-scale solar energy installations.

Pushing Past State Of The Art To Probabilistic Forecasts

This new batch of renewable energy forecasting systems will be deployed at Xcel Energy regional control centers in Denver, Minneapolis, and Amarillo to help the utility increase renewable energy output to the grid while reducing costs and ensuring a reliable power supply.

“This is pushing the state-of-the-art still further,” said Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR program director. “Every improvement to the forecasts results in additional savings.”

The new phase of renewable energy forecasting technology will provide “probabilistic forecasts,” meaning utility managers will be able to make decisions based on high-accuracy predictions of certain weather conditions at a wind farm on the next day. Forecasts will focus on wind “ramp” events, ice and extreme temperatures, and distributed solar.

Anticipating Wind Ramp Events

Of the three, predicting ramp events could mean the most for overall generation. Ramp events refer to sudden and significant changes in wind conditions over the span of a few hours due to passing weather fronts or atmospheric events. NCAR’s Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) will combine radar data with computer simulations to create accurate forecasts for specific wind farms and reduce intermittency.

VDRAS forecasts will allow utilities to accurately estimate how much electricity wind farms can generate, and ramp other baseload generation up or down according to overall demand on the grid. “We are able to power the system using wind more often, and aggressively, than we have in the past,” said Gabriel Romero of Xcel.

Preventing Cold-Weather Effects On Turbines

While ramp events may mean the most for generation, predicting extreme weather conditions could do the most to prevent sudden wind farm shut downs. NCAR is partnering with Pennsylvania State University to develop a 48-hour forecasting system to predict extreme temperature swings as well as the impact of freezing rain and fog on turbines.

Both of these weather conditions can force wind farms to stop operation, and can potentially damage turbine blades. NCAR is applying similar computer models and specialized algorithms as the ones used to keep aircraft safe from potentially lethal in-flight icing conditions.

Predicting Small-Scale Solar Output

If you thought solar was being left out of the forecasting mix, don’t worry – NCAR is also developing a forecasting system to help utilities anticipate the output of small-scale solar installations. The system will predict when customers with rooftop solar will supply their own demand, when they’ll be contributing excess electricity to the grid, and when they’ll need to pull power from utility sources.

This new solar forecasting system will augment NCAR research already underway to forecast sunlight conditions and predict power at 15-minute increments for large-scale solar installations. The existing research will use an array of observational tools to predict cloud cover at solar facilities and the effect different types of clouds will have on generation.

Renewable Energy Forecasting Equals Economic Benefits

All of NCAR’s efforts will ultimately benefit consumers as much as they will benefit the climate. Since electricity can’t yet be stored in large quantities, every time solar or wind system generation suddenly decreases, utilities are forced to turn on coal or natural gas facilities.

In addition to higher emissions, these generation units may be more expensive than renewables, and if they are unavailable due to maintenance or can’t be turned on in time to meet demand, the utility is forced to buy power on the expensive electricity spot market.

NCAR’s approach to renewable energy forecasting has already been proven to save millions. A wind forecasting system it developed for Xcel in 2010 saved utility customers over $6 million that year by developing 35% more accurate forecasts for wind farm output.

“By creating more detailed and accurate forecasts…we can produce a major return on investment,” said Thomas Bogdan, President of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. “This type of cutting-edge research helps make renewable energy more cost competitive.”

Energy and Environment News Roundup – 5.17.13

silvio — Fri, 17 May 2013 12:56:03 +0000

Marcacci Communications publishes a daily roundup of energy and climate news and opinion. Inclusion of articles does not mean endorsement.

CLIMATE

Smaller glacier melt boost sea level rise as much as largest ones (via Climate Central)

USGS: warmer springs causing loss of snow cover throughout Rocky Mountains (via Climate Progress)

KEYSTONE XL/TAR SANDS

Canadian government doubles advertising spend on tar sands (via The Guardian)

Canadian prime minister warns US against Keystone XL rejection (via Houston Chronicle/AP)

Keystone XL oil pipeline bill moves to full US House (via Reuters)

EMISSIONS

EU confirms two percent reduction in ETS emissions (via BusinessGreen)

Norwegian firm seeks way to trap cement factory CO2 (vie Reuters)

RENEWABLES

China PV prices “could rise 45%” in June (via Recharge)

Australia launches clean energy map (via Renew Economy)

Solar power costs closing in on wind (via Reuters)

Some light in clean tech investing, despite the gloom (via GreenBiz)

US military’s renewable energy development at risk from Sequester (via Medill)

Goldman Sachs to finance $500 million for SolarCity roofs (via Bloomberg)

Report outlines US military’s 130MW solar power might (via CleanTechnica)

Are run-of-river hydropower systems ready for the US? (via Renewable Energy World)

800MW solar power plant goes online in California (via Sacramento Bee)

Renewable power generation grew 7 percent in Texas last year (via Houston Chronicle)

Top Indiana wind farm drafts bat-protection plans (via Courier-Press/AP)

COAL

NRG settles lawsuit with NJ & CT; will shut down coal units (via Renew Grid)

TRANSPORTATION

Global capacity of lithium-ion batteries for EVs will grow 10-fold by 2020 (via Navigant Research)

Tesla’s market value soars but some see a bubble (via Washington Post)

Nissan Leaf sales hit 25,000 in US (via Autoblog Green)

NATURAL GAS/FRACKING

Baltic LNG terminal deal likely for late 2013 (via Retuers)

Interior Department unveils fracking rules for federal lands (via The Hill)

Fracking risks to groundwater assessed by scientific review (via Phys.org)

Could we see three US LNG export projects approved by 2014? (via Breaking Energy)

Shale drilling nearly doubles Ohio output since 2011 (via Houston Chronicle)

GRID

China’s State Grid to buy stake in Australian electricity network for $802 million (via Washington Post/AP)

California ISO market fix boosts renewables in state (via Reuters)

National Grid unveils plans for sustainability hub (via Daily Finance)

ENERGY POLICY

What British Columbia election means for Northwest fossil fuel exports (via Sightline Daily)

EPA ranked most effective of all federal agencies (via Sustainable Business)

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

DOE publishes protocols to determine energy efficiency savings (via Energy Manager Today)

Five technologies to make government buildings more efficient (via Greentech Media)

NREL teams up with US Navy to cut energy use (via Energy Manager Today)

ENVIRONMENT

Study finds world’s fish have been moving to colder waters for decades (via Washington Post)

Indonesia extends landmark ban on clearing rainforests and peatland (via New York Times)

State officials seek federal help fighting invasive species (via Stateline)

POLITICS

Senate approves Ernest Moniz as Secretary of Energy (via Greentech Media)

Senate committee advances EPA nominee McCarthy in party-line vote (via The Hill)

GOP says EPA’s FOIA decisions show “anti-conservative attitude” (via Greenwire)

OPINION

Strengthening ownership and effectiveness of climate finance (via WRI Insights)

How low can utility emissions go? (via Greentech Media)

Proposed fracking rules anger environmentalists, annoy industry (via National Journal)

Spigot of money starting to open up for installing solar panels (via GigaOm)

A new model for valuing distributed energy (via Greentech Media)

Energy and Environment News Roundup – 5.16.13

silvio — Thu, 16 May 2013 13:17:02 +0000

Marcacci Communications publishes a daily roundup of energy and climate news and opinion. Inclusion of articles does not mean endorsement.

CLIMATE

Survey finds 97% of climate science papers agree global warming is man-made (via The Guardian)

North Pole wanders, thanks to climate change (via Grist)

GAO: Feds should improve help to local governments on climate change (via The Hill)

ConocoPhillips CEO: humans accelerating climate change (via Houston Chronicle)

SEC upholds shareholder vote on efficiency measure over climate concerns (via InsideClimate News)

TRANSPORTATION

Tesla could raise $830M through new stock offering (via GigaOm)

DOE to award $62.5M over 5 years to accelerate development of next-generation EV batteries (via Green Car Congress)

Ford taps AeroVironment for home-charging systems (via Autoblog Green)

RENEWABLES

China says EU solar duties to “seriously harm” trade ties (via Reuters)

Brazil auction rules may boost price of cheap wind power (via Bloomberg)

UK offshore wind body starts work (via Recharge)

US holds tests to solve wind farm effects on radar (via Airport World)

Which states use the most green energy? (via Mother Jones)

Study: doubling wind will cut rates for PJM customers (via Greentech Media)

Solar carve-out wins another vote in Minnesota (via Solar Industry Magazine)

NATURAL GAS/FRACKING

Mexico debates opening its doors for shale development (via Houston Chronicle)

Quebec proposes law to ban fracking (via Houston Chronicle)

Floating terminals are wave of the future for LNG (via Houston Chronicle)

Survey finds fracking brings economic boost, concerns over environmental risks (via Phys.org)

Compromise reached on Illinois fracking legislation (via Chicago Tribune)

OIL

Inquiry on potential oil price manipulation intensifies (via New York Times)

Transocean to see a dust-up at annual shareholder meeting (via Houston Chronicle)

ENVIRONMENT

Arctic Council sets 2015 goal for climate pact (via Politico)

Canada pushes development as it takes over Arctic Council (via Phys.org)

GRID

PJM has 11.2GW of demand response for this summer (via Renew Grid)

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Major business group backs Shaheen-Portman energy efficiency plan (via The Hill)

EMISSIONS

Good news, bad news from new EIA emissions analysis (via Climate Central)

California governor proposes to borrow $500M from cap-and-trade revenue (via ClimateWire)

POLITICS

Harper seeks to build Keystone XL support on US visit (via Bloomberg)

After upset British Columbia election, tar sands route to Pacific still open (via InsideClimate News)

First green party candidate elected to British Columbia legislature (via Yahoo! News)

OPINION

3 reasons PG&E is reaching its California solar initiative targets (via Greentech Media)

Utilities vs. rooftop solar: what the fight is about (via Grist)

Three recommendations for the new US-China climate change working group (via Huffington Post)

How New York Times, NPR, and Wall Street Journal print fossil fuel talking points without full disclosure (via Climate Progress)

Climate hawks should aggressively support America COMPETES act (via Innovation Files)

The economic case for divesting from fossil fuels (via Renewable Energy World)

Offshore Wind Industry Will Become €130 Billion Annual Market By 2020

silvio — Wed, 15 May 2013 13:52:31 +0000

Note: this post was originally published on CleanTechnica

By Silvio Marcacci

Offshore wind power may yet not match the overall strength of onshore wind, but the industry is on course grow rapidly to become an €130 billion global market by 2020.

A new report from industry consultants Roland Berger, “Offshore Wind Toward 2020,” concludes a combination of industry trends will soon make offshore wind cost competitive with other generation sources in many markets.

Europe is expected to continue dominating the global offshore wind industry, but the Asia Pacific and North American regions will soon represent significant market shares as technological innovation reduce many bottlenecks that have stymied project development to date.

Europe Continues To Dominate Global Markets

New turbines are expected to sprout from seas across the globe, but Europe will lead the charge, buoyed by ambitious national policy goals in multiple countries. The European Union has set 2020 targets of 35% electricity from renewables, with a 12% carve out for wind and 40 gigawatts (GW) installed offshore capacity.

So far, those targets have helped build 5GW offshore wind capacity, with new installations exceeding more than one offshore turbine per business day in 2012, equivalent to 10% of Europe’s annual wind energy installations. In many cases, actual generation from wind farms has exceeded expectations.

But current offshore output will be swamped by future additions – by 2020 reaching 4.5GW of new annual offshore wind capacity additions, worth more than €14 billion per year. Those estimates would more than triple annual capacity additions and double total investments for 2013, currently at 1.8GW and €7 billion respectively.

Growing Asia-Pacific, North American Markets

Just like a rising tide, the offshore wind market’s growth will raise boats outside of European waters. Asia Pacific is expected to reach 1.5GW of new annual capacity additions worth €4.8 billion by 2020, primarily focused in Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan. That exponential growth will dwarf current annual additions of 400 megawatts (MW) and €1.6 billion in investments.

Last but not least, North America is on course to finally join the global offshore market and capitalize upon the tremendous wind potential of its coastal waters. While annual capacity additions and annual investment are both near zero today, the report forecasts Canada, America, and Mexico will be home to 500MW annual capacity additions and €1.6 billion in total investment by 2020.

Industry Innovations Boost Cost Competitiveness

All these forecasts may seem optimistic considering significant bottlenecks in current technology, financing, and costs that have created a typical 7-10 year project development timeline, but Roland Berger predicts industry trends and market innovations will speed construction and boost cost competitiveness.

As more turbines are built, offshore wind farms will seek locations further from shore, solving the development challenges of limited space near coastlines and constrictive environmental laws. Projects further out to sea will then allow bigger farms to be built and encourage increased efficiencies in turbine manufacturing.

In this scenario turbines will get bigger and more powerful, boosting overall project output. The report predicts the average offshore wind farm size will jump from 200MW today to 340MW in 2020, with average turbine capacity rising from 2-3MW today to 4-7MW.

Big Is Beautiful

Larger turbines embody the “big is beautiful” mantra, and their efficiencies of scale will drive industry cost-competitiveness with other forms of generation. Offshore wind capital expenditures are forecast to drop 6%, while operation and maintenance costs fall 14% and capacity factors rise 12%.

Add it all up, and the levelized cost of energy (LCoE) from European offshore wind generation could fall 17% from current figures. This equals Europe’s current offshore wind LCoE of €13 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) dropping to €11ct/kWh by 2016 and €9ct/kWh by 2020 – making offshore wind competitive with all other forms of non-hydro renewable electricity.

Risks Remain, But Potential Is Clear

Siting new offshore wind projects in ever-deeper waters does, however, raise logistical problems for turbine installation and risks future growth. The report notes new vessels are now being specifically designed to install offshore turbines more efficiently, and the types of turbine foundations used will shift from gravity-based or monopile construction to jacket-style or floating foundations – all reducing installation times and project costs.

Overall, the challenges to offshore wind remain significant, but the potential is enormous and the imperative to build out this renewable energy resource is clear. “The offshore wind industry will become increasingly important in the years ahead,” said Marcus Weber of Roland Berger. “Transforming the energy system without this one central pillar would be difficult to imagine.“

Energy and Environment News Roundup – 5.15.13

silvio — Wed, 15 May 2013 12:56:33 +0000

Marcacci Communications publishes a daily roundup of energy and climate news and opinion. Inclusion of articles does not mean endorsement.

CLIMATE

Sea levels may rise 27 inches through 2100 on ice melt (via Bloomberg)

UN says natural disasters cost $2.5 trillion since 2000 (via Phys.org)

Visiting Sweden, Kerry offers “regret” US hasn’t done more on climate (via The Hill)

Rockefeller Foundation launches $100 million resilient cities initiative (via BusinessGreen)

Sea levels rising so fast London faces significant flooding risk this century (via The Independent)

For insurers, no doubts on climate change (via New York Times)

GRID

More than 1,300 demand response programs underway worldwide (via Navigant Research)

Smart grid efforts to thrive in Asia-Pacific (via Renew Grid)

RENEWABLES

China gives environmental approval to country’s biggest hydro dam (via Reuters)

Greece announces drastic solar FIT cuts (via PV Magazine)

Fighting blackouts: Japan residential PV and energy storage market flourishing (via Renewable Energy World)

Morocco begins construction of world’s largest concentrating solar plant (via Sustainable Business)

China wants dialogue with EU in solar trade war (via Solar Industry Magazine)

Acting DOE chief: US not backing down on India solar trade war (via The Hill)

Clean tech incubators join forces across the Atlantic (via Sustainable Business)

Proposed bill would add natural gas-based ethanol to US biofuels mandate (via Houston Chronicle)

Study: Arizona solar energy provides millions in ratepayer benefits (via Solar Industry Magazine)

OIL

Oil majors under EU investigation over alleged oil and biofuel price fixing (via BusinessGreen)

Report: most nations lack safeguards in oil, mining oversight (via The Hill)

TRANSPORTATION

Will your next car join the “revolution” in information technology? (via ClimateWire)

Proposed law would stop Tesla electric car sales in North Carolina (via News & Observer)

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Senate energy chairman seeks May floor action for efficiency bill (via The Hill)

California plans to force cuts in power use by computers, electronics, and appliances (via ClimateWire)

ENVIRONMENT

Industrialized fishing has forced seabirds to change what they eat (via Mongabay)

China granted observer seat on Arctic Council (via Reuters)

Amazon flood/drought cycle becoming more extreme, less predictable (via Mongabay)

POLITICS

Merkel’s green challenger seeks CO2 price rise to ditch coal (via Bloomberg)

OPINION

Clean energy learns to compete in Europe (via New York Times)

Christie’s broken climate promise (via Washington Post)

Energy and Environment News Roundup – 5.14.13

silvio — Tue, 14 May 2013 13:23:06 +0000

Marcacci Communications publishes a daily roundup of energy and climate news and opinion. Inclusion of articles does not mean endorsement.

EMISSIONS

South Korea to launch world’s most ambitious carbon trading scheme (via BusinessGreen)

Clock is ticking, slowly, on rules for coal-fired power plants (via Los Angeles Times)

EIA releases report on CO2 emissions by state (via Green Car Congress)

GREEN BUSINESS

Sustainability “highly important” to 42% of supply chains (via Environmental Leader)

ENERGY POLICY

Wyoming governor unveils state energy policy 2 years in making (via Houston Chronicle)

RENEWABLES

Germany disputes hard EU stance on China solar panel duties (via Reuters)

5 achievements from Germany’s “Energiewende” (via WRI Insights)

Consumer support for wind and solar energy fell in 2012 (via Navigant Research)

Big Data will provide accurate analysis of wind-wildlife impacts (via Treehugger)

Feds study Gulf wildlife to make way for wind turbines (via Houston Chronicle)

Sharper computer models clear the way for more wind power (via MIT Technology Review)

In Solyndra wake, US solar industry sees chance to go from niche to mainstream (via Greenwire)

DOE’s high-impact energy innovation incubator program (via Energy Collective)

SolarCity shares up 200% since IPO (via Recharge)

Illinois renewable energy fund lacks power to fulfill purpose (via Chicago Tribune)

OIL

Lower Mexican oil production contributes to lower US crude oil exports (via US EIA)

Pipelines spill three times as much oil as trains (via Houston Chronicle/Bloomberg)

US oil boom leaves OPEC sidelined from demand growth (via Reuters)

CLIMATE

Mount Everest glaciers have shrunk 13% in 50 years (via Mongabay)

Melting ice opens fight over sea routes for Arctic (via Bloomberg)

Hurricane Sandy forced third-most people from homes worldwide in 2012 (via The Hill)

America’s first climate refugees (via The Guardian)

Climate resilience: deconstructing the new buzz-word (via Climate Progress)

Both sides in climate war blamed for cherry-picking attribution research (via InsideClimate News)

GRID

Smart meters stumble in the UK (via Greentech Media)

How “shadow bids” could hurt the demand response market (via Greentech Media)

Insights into renewables and the grid from Congress (via Greentech Media)

Water utilities to spend $2 billion on smart meters through 2020 (via Bloomberg)

ENVIRONMENT

Nations ponder how to handle busier, more polluted Arctic (via ClimateWire)

Fewer rainforests mean less energy for developing nations (via New York Times)

Tinderbox-dry Western US at high risk of major wildfires (via Climate Central)

Feds warn sequester cuts weakened readiness for wildfire season (via The Hill)

Do we need a better yardstick to measure severe droughts in US? (via Climatewire)

OPINION

The myths and realities of America’s oil and gas boom (via Greentech Media)

What to expect from EV range now and over time (via Plugin Cars)

DOE Smart Grid Funds Created $6.8 Billion Economic Boost, 47,000 Jobs

silvio — Mon, 13 May 2013 15:02:47 +0000

Note: this post was originally published on CleanTechnica

By Silvio Marcacci

As American government seek out the best industries to invest shrinking public funds for the biggest return on investment, one economic sector offers the most bullish outlook around – the smart grid.

An analysis from the US Department of Energy (DOE), “Economic Impact of Recovery Act Investment in the Smart Grid,” reports smart grid projects funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) created nearly $7 billion total economic output, nearly 50,000 jobs, and over $1 billion in government tax revenue.

DOE’s analysis covers $1.48 billion in ARRA investments from the Smart Grid Investment Grants (SGIG) and Smart Grid Demonstration Program (SGDP) programs, as well as $1.48 billion in associated matching investments made by grant recipients in the private sector between August 2009 and March 2012.

Smart Grid Funds Created Over 2-to-1 ROI

During a period of stagnant economic growth, the impact of ARRA’s smart grid investments shines like a beacon. According to the report, nearly $3 billion in combined smart grid project funding generated at least $6.83 billion in total economic output.

In addition to total economic output, DOE estimates ARRA smart grid investments boosted overall gross domestic product (GDP) by $4.18 billion. The smart grid GDP multiplier is higher than many other forms of government investment – for every $1 million of direct spending, GDP increased by $2.5-$2.6 million.

Stable, High-Paying Jobs

So just how did ARRA investments in smart grid projects create so much economic activity? The answer is pretty straightforward – jobs in the smart grid industry are stable, pay higher wages, and ripple throughout the overall economy by creating demand down associated supply chains and across other service sectors.

Since economic output and GDP can be esoteric, the full impact of smart grid funding is best understood through actual jobs and paychecks. Approximately 47,000 full-time jobs were supported by ARRA grants, including both newly created jobs and existing jobs that would have been lost without the investments.

DOE’s analysis finds ARRA funds created 33,000 jobs and over $2 billion in labor income for smart grid industry sectors, primarily computer system design, technical and scientific services, and electrical equipment and components. In addition, jobs in smart grid sectors pay 35% higher average per-worker salaries than those in the broader US economy.

Economic Activity Trickles Down To Other Industries

Interestingly, the economic activity initiated by those smart grid jobs then spread across other industries. Of the 47,000 total jobs cited, 18,000 were supported by direct investment (meaning the grant money helped pay a worker’s salary) but 29,000 jobs were supported by indirect and induced economic activities (meaning smart grid company revenue and worker salaries were then spent across the broader economy).

When non-core smart grid industries are included, ARRA investments created nearly $2.9 billion in overall labor income. These indirect and induced economic activities supported 2,500 jobs in the restaurant industry, 1,500 jobs each in the healthcare and real estate service sectors, and 1,000 jobs each in the financial services and high-end manufacturing industries.

DOE’s analysis concludes employment in these ancillary service industries is almost entirely due to induced impacts as income across core and value chain smart grid companies trickled down to boost related consumer spending.

Paying The Taxman

But smart grid investments didn’t just help the American worker – they also helped pay for American government. ARRA funding generated $1.02 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenue – almost $750 million of which is directly attributable to companies in core smart grid industries.

This tax revenue was geographically diverse, with $361 million in state and local tax revenues spread across multiple regions, primarily generated by sales and property taxes – again showing the GDP magnifier effect across the larger economy.

While all these figures add up to an incredible return on investment, we’re probably only seeing the tip of the iceberg. ARRA programs are still underway and by the time SGIG and SGDP funds are fully spent, an additional $2.5 billion in federal funds and $4.1 billion in private sector funds will be invested into smart grid projects across the country.

Exhibit A For Green Job Growth

These ongoing follow-up investments paid for by government, ratepayers, and firms will likely function as a catalyst to sustain the smart grid industry and continue generating high-tech, green collar jobs as America’s grid moves toward modernization.

So at a time when Congressional Republicans are pressing DOE to prove ARRA funding actually created jobs, America’s smart grid industry stands out as an example of how clean energy investment can strengthen our country and economy. Hopefully this report will be Exhibit A in DOE’s ARRA defense.